City of Detroit Revenue Estimating Conference
Detroit Office of Chief Financial Officer
Finance
Remote
Join meeting:
https://cityofdetroit.zoom.us/j/87228238067
Check the source website for additional information
Reporting
Edited and summarized by the Detroit - MI Documenters Team
Note-taking by
Sandi Nelson
Mild recession expected nationwide in 2023-24; Detroit forecast to avoid worst of recession due to auto industry jobs.
Live reporting by
Heather Alder
Mild recession expected nationwide in 2023-24; Detroit forecast to avoid worst of recession due to auto industry jobs.
Heather P In The D!
@HeatherPInTheD
Good Morning #DETROIT!!! I will be live tweeting our DETROIT REVENUE ESTIMATING CONFERENCE starting at 1pm #today !!!
#DetroitDocumenters @DetDocumenters media partners: @BridgeDet313 @chalkbeatDET @freep @media_outlier @metrotimes @MichiganRadio @PlanetDetroit @wdet @wxyzdetroit
#DetroitDocumenters @DetDocumenters media partners: @BridgeDet313 @chalkbeatDET @freep @media_outlier @metrotimes @MichiganRadio @PlanetDetroit @wdet @wxyzdetroit
08:06 AM Feb 13, 2023 CST
Conference information and listening/viewing options are available here detroitmi.gov/sites/detroitm…
detroitmi.gov/departments/of… Here is a link to read further about the Office of the CFO.
Jay Rising CFO
Jay Rising CFO
IMPORTANT: If you believe anything in the coverage this afternoon is inaccurate, please email us at documenters@outliermedia.org with "Correction Request" in the subject line.
In a little early on Zoom meeting..some technical difficulties getting straightened out. https://t.co/I4ZN4LFiJR
Still before start time- Janice Butler discussing with Gabriel Ehrlich about ability to be able to hear- also testing microphone in chamber under Lori Cetlinski camera https://t.co/Dm8RY7giww
The people in the meeting can not hear Gabe per Janice Butler.
Meeting has started George Fulton Prof @UMich - started- Jay Rising, Eric Busses (?) Renee (city council representative).. 17th meeting since this became law 2014
CFO Mr Rising, State Rep Mr Busses (?) and Mr Fulton is 3rd party-
They need new conference chair-elected Mr Busses
CFO Mr Rising, State Rep Mr Busses (?) and Mr Fulton is 3rd party-
They need new conference chair-elected Mr Busses
Previous meeting minutes approved- Detroit Economic forecast - Presentation by Gabriel Ehlich (they still can not hear him in chamber. They are working on it
Gabriel is discussing slowing economy and inflation- “too early to declare victory on inflation”. https://t.co/RpvuiorCsG
Mr Erhlich discussing housing market slow down. & Treasury Bonds as indicator for possible rescission-
Lots of graphs- jobs for residents of Detroit and jobs in #Detroit going up from pandemic low numbers https://t.co/32YyswCKWp
Another Graph (notice Mr Ehrlich uses Blue and Maize lines- Professor at @UMich)Detroit City resident unemployment rates at historical lows. https://t.co/XqX5pihONk
Middle of next year predicts Detroit complete recovery from pandemic- (per Mr Ehrlichs group).
Blue Collar jobs up 14% from pre-pandemic with a little more growth.
& white color job rates predicted to stay slower recovery (remote work, layoffs)
Service industry- now 5.6% higher than pre-pandemic. https://t.co/ZTADcwi3vF
& white color job rates predicted to stay slower recovery (remote work, layoffs)
Service industry- now 5.6% higher than pre-pandemic. https://t.co/ZTADcwi3vF
Blue line shows income adjusted foe #inflation- yellow just income- Statewide pattern not just city. https://t.co/RfwZyNvr4o
Inflation slow down- slowing to 2.5% 2024-2027 predicted- inflation already slowing down
Mr George Fulton gave praise for the predictions and presentations.? If we can be mislead by the model- Mr Ehrlich advised models are linear- extreme times could cause model to breakdown (like Covid pandemic). Mr Fulton excited about Detroit forecast.
Mr Fulton -? Odds of minor recessions and how likely is Detroit to avoid. Mr Ehrlich says his team says recession
2/3 odds, but he feels more like 50/50
2/3 odds, but he feels more like 50/50
Mr Ehrlich more optimistic about Detroit due to auto backlog and other major projects in the city
Mr Fulton ? If large wage increases for UAW contracts in 2024 could increase the overall wages?- advised yes-
No more ? From Mr Fulton-
Jay Rising CFO says 5th time-end of pandemic doesn’t make it easier- audio issues for myself and Mr Ehrlich
No more ? From Mr Fulton-
Jay Rising CFO says 5th time-end of pandemic doesn’t make it easier- audio issues for myself and Mr Ehrlich
Mr Ehrlich advising if recession where noticeable here employment counts would fall- no projection of decline in employment counts so should miss a mild recession.
Mr Ehrlich signed off-
Mr Ehrlich signed off-
Steve (?), Evan Cunningham and Erika Barker from city office of Budget to present cities revenue
Names of voting principles including Eric Bussis (correct spelling) https://t.co/Vd79pEHPjH
Income tax loss due to remote workers (estimated red dotted line on top of each year). https://t.co/VE7lsdgdSB
Increases in each category estimates from prior year.
Mr Fulton discussing https://t.co/PH6QmEvcXW
Mr Fulton discussing https://t.co/PH6QmEvcXW
More graphs! It’s an economic conference! More $$$$ from the states than expected.-@GovWhitmer latest budget should make the state sharing higher than this model. https://t.co/Eb1XTBHlDd
Internet gambling taking revenue from casinos.
Need to watch models- Mr Bussis- a lot of unknown difficult to forecast.
Mr Fultons microphone on and out- unable to determine his comments about internet gambling-
Need to watch models- Mr Bussis- a lot of unknown difficult to forecast.
Mr Fultons microphone on and out- unable to determine his comments about internet gambling-
Utility tax- New Construction not yet accounted for in forecast- https://t.co/p4C41zictR
Mr Bussis appreciates the improvements in this category presentation. https://t.co/JijdOtufv2
Risks built into the forecast- potential upside not build into forecast https://t.co/Z7Erto7WAP
Mr Fulton commenting on presentation and need to remain vigilant for the 18th conference in September-
More comments-
Renee Short -city council legislative policy division-thanking city budget Dept the OCFO and staff for hard work.
Advised of concerns about remote work refunds
More comments-
Renee Short -city council legislative policy division-thanking city budget Dept the OCFO and staff for hard work.
Advised of concerns about remote work refunds
Renee Short discussing gaming revenue onsite vs internet, and DDOT revenues
Auditor General Mark Lockridge commenting—-
thanking Evan, Steve and Renee.
Thanking his team.
Would like to meet more and have other directors or agency CFO’s discuss and meet with us.
His Tenor as auditor General is ending soon so this is his last conference.
thanking Evan, Steve and Renee.
Thanking his team.
Would like to meet more and have other directors or agency CFO’s discuss and meet with us.
His Tenor as auditor General is ending soon so this is his last conference.
public comments 2 min limit- in person 1st- ? Mr Lockridge if him leaving will interrupt process. ..he advised city council will appoint and he hopes to work with them. Auditor a general 10 yr appointment.
Public Comment Evan ? Salary of Detroiters $47000…those working in city $97000…any way to get gap closed-
Mr Ehrlich advised they are aware of the gap. Mr Fulton referred to city job training opportunities for residents (breaking up hard to hear).
Mr Ehrlich advised they are aware of the gap. Mr Fulton referred to city job training opportunities for residents (breaking up hard to hear).
Public online comments Ruth Johnson ? Surplus ARPA $ and $ needed for eviction Right to representation funding.
Request office or budget reports online at city website-
Steve advised report is now online.
Request office or budget reports online at city website-
Steve advised report is now online.
Ramses Dukes from City Council Calloway’s office ? What other forms of revenue are we exploring besides auto and gambling-Evan Cunningham responded-discussing risks of auto and gaming revenues- ie internet gaming, its a forecast estimate-other revenue sources would be prospective
$230 million surplus 2022- unheard of but prepared for the worst and got a lot extra-
Wouldn’t expect that big of forecast error.
Internet gaming revenue way above anticipated.
Refunds- remote work refund activity could have been more- so also over projected.
Wouldn’t expect that big of forecast error.
Internet gaming revenue way above anticipated.
Refunds- remote work refund activity could have been more- so also over projected.
Motion to adopt- forecast is adopted for Feb 2023 conference-
Again-IMPORTANT: If you believe anything in the coverage this afternoon is inaccurate, please email us at documenters@outliermedia.org with "Correction Request" in the subject line.
Attachments
Agency Information
Detroit Office of Chief Financial Officer
The Office of the Chief Financial Officer (OCFO) is the centralized financial management organization for the City of Detroit and is led by the CFO’s Office. The role of the CFO’s Office is to ensure the execution of the CFO’s vision and strategy, oversee financial reform and continuous improvements, improve the OCFO’s functions and build capacity throughout OCFO, and improve efficiency and effectiveness across OCFO and the government.